人形機器人出貨量評測：中國吃下97%，全年估上看5萬台 | Humanoid Robot Shipments Review: China Owns 97% in 2026

By Kit 小克 | AI Tool Observer | 2026-09-07

🇹🇼 人形機器人出貨量評測：中國吃下97%，全年估上看5萬台

人形機器人出貨量在 2026 年出現了誇張的成長曲線：摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）今年已經第二次上修中國人形機器人出貨預估，從 28,000 台一口氣拉到 50,000 台；同時間 中國廠商拿下全球逾 97% 的出貨量，把美系對手遠遠甩在後頭。數字很嗨，但拆開來看，實際情況比新聞標題複雜一些。

人形機器人出貨量到底跳多快？

2026 上半年全球人形機器人出貨量約 19,100 台，比 2025 同期的 5,100 台成長超過 200%（Bloomberg 統計）。摩根士丹利預估全年上看 5 萬台，2030 年更看到 446,000 台，換算 2025-2030 年複合成長率高達 106%；市場規模則從今年約 20 億美元，成長到 2030 年的 150 億美元。研究機構 TrendForce 給的數字略保守，估中國全年出貨約 62,500 台，年增 94%，但方向一致：這是真實在發生的爆發期，不是單一機構喊價。

中國為什麼能包辦97%？

供應鏈已經在量產爬坡：諧波減速器廠雷賽智能（Leaderdrive）月產能從第一季 5 萬台衝到 7 萬台，年底目標 10-12 萬台；恆立液壓在墨西哥設廠瞄準約 10 萬台機器人份的零件產能
真實訂單開始出現：國家電網一筆 68 億人民幣（約 10 億美元）大單，包含 500 台人形機器人、3,000 台雙臂機器人、5,000 台四足機器人，這不是展示用的原型機，是商業採購合約
2025 年出貨量前五大廠商全部是中國公司，美系代表 Figure AI 和特斯拉 Optimus 分別只排第七、第九名

誠實看數字：出貨≠真的會幹活

這裡才是重點：摩根士丹利自己的資料顯示，2026 年出貨的人形機器人裡，約 70% 是半身型（half-size），成本低、技術門檻也低；真正接近科幻片印象的全身型機型，要到 2027 年才佔到約 50%，2028 年才拉到 70%。換句話說，現在衝出來的出貨量，很大一部分是相對簡單、任務範圍有限的機型，離「取代產線工人」的全能人形機器人還有一段距離。「出貨」這個字眼也值得留意——它代表機器人離開工廠，不代表已經在客戶端穩定運作，商業訂單和展示訂單常常被混在同一個統計口徑裡。

對投資人或觀察者來說，別只看「出貨台數」這種headline數字，多問一句「半身還是全身、真的部署在產線還是躺在倉庫」，才是判斷這波人形機器人熱潮是不是泡沫的關鍵。好不好用，試了才知道。

🇺🇸 Humanoid Robot Shipments Review: China Owns 97% in 2026

Humanoid robot shipments are on a wild growth curve in 2026: Morgan Stanley has upgraded its China humanoid robot forecast for the second time this year, jumping from 28,000 to 50,000 units, while Chinese manufacturers now account for over 97% of global shipments. The headline numbers are dramatic, but the details underneath are more nuanced.

How Fast Are Humanoid Robot Shipments Actually Growing?

Global humanoid robot shipments hit roughly 19,100 units in H1 2026, up more than 200% from 5,100 units in H1 2025, according to Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley now projects 50,000 units for the full year, and 446,000 units by 2030 — a 106% compound annual growth rate from 2025 to 2030. Market size is expected to grow from roughly $2 billion this year to $15 billion by 2030. TrendForce's separate estimate is slightly more conservative — about 62,500 units shipped from China alone, up 94% year-over-year — but the direction agrees: this is a real inflection point, not one analyst's hype.

Why Does China Own 97% of the Market?

Supply chain is already scaling production: harmonic reducer maker Leaderdrive went from 50,000 units/month in Q1 to 70,000, targeting 100,000-120,000 by year-end; Hengli Hydraulic is building a Mexico plant targeting parts capacity for roughly 100,000 robots
Real commercial orders are showing up: State Grid Corporation of China placed a 6.8 billion yuan (~$1 billion) order for 500 humanoid robots, 3,000 dual-arm robots, and 5,000 quadruped robots — a procurement contract, not a demo unit
All top 5 manufacturers by 2025 shipment volume were Chinese firms, while U.S. players Figure AI and Tesla Optimus ranked only 7th and 9th

The Honest Read: Shipped ≠ Actually Working

Here's the part worth slowing down for: Morgan Stanley's own data shows roughly 70% of 2026 shipments are half-size robots — cheaper and technically simpler. The full-size humanoids that match the sci-fi image most people have in mind won't hit about 50% of shipments until 2027, and 70% until 2028. In other words, a large chunk of today's shipment surge is simpler, narrower-task hardware, not the general-purpose factory-worker robots the headlines imply. "Shipped" also just means the unit left the factory — it doesn't mean it's running reliably at a customer site, and commercial orders often get lumped together with demo/pilot units in the same statistics.

If you're evaluating this trend as an investor or just a curious observer, don't stop at the "units shipped" headline number. Ask whether it's half-size or full-size, and whether it's actually deployed on a production line or sitting in a warehouse — that's what separates real traction from a bubble narrative. As always: it's only good if it actually works for you — try it yourself.

Sources / 資料來源

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